New Florence. New Renaissance.

Synthetic Storms

Rather than extrapolating from storms that occurred when times were cooler, they’re deploying vast computing power to create “synthetic” storms that—so the modelers hope—will better reflect the realities of an era that’s getting hot.

The synthetic-storm methodology that Sobel’s team uses was pioneered by Kerry Emanuel, a hurricane expert at MIT. The Columbia crew’s secret sauce is the model it has written, which incorporates particular assumptions about the physics of how climate change will affect hurricanes. Rather than employing Swiss Re’s current standard, a top-down approach that starts with the paths of past hurricanes and, as Sobel puts it, uses historical data to “just jiggle it a little bit,” the Columbia modelers use a bottom-up method, starting with data on weather-related factors they think are both relevant to hurricanes and likely to be influenced by global warming. Among those factors: “wind shear,” which is the variation in wind speed and direction at different altitudes; sea-surface temperature; and the amount of moisture in the air. Using that data, their algorithm calculates when a hurricane will form, how it will move, and how intense it will be. Theoretically, this more-forward-looking approach could be more accurate.

Fortune

Here is an example from eos.org

"Variables were taken from ECMWF operational forecasts and used for stress testing simulations for critical infrastructure in the city of Khulna in Bangladesh. In this example, Hurricane Matthew (29 September 2016, 18:00 Central European Summer Time) has been displaced from the Gulf of Mexico 163.5° eastward and 5° northward to just offshore of Bangladesh. Conditions for sea level pressure (colors), 10-meter zonal and meridional wind components (arrows), and precipitation (not shown) were replicated in a simulation of this new location to gauge the damage that such a storm might inflict on this region."

Re-visiting global immigration trends

Current state-of-the-art estimates of bilateral migration flows rely on the assumption that the number of global migrants is as small as possible. We relax this assumption, producing complete estimates of all between-country migration flows with genuine estimates of total global migration. We find that the total number of individuals migrating internationally has oscillated between 1.13 and 1.29% of the global population per 5-year period since 1990. Return migration and transit migration are big parts of total migration; roughly one of four migration events is a return to an individual’s country of birth. In the most recent time period, we estimate particularly large return migration flows from the United States to Central and South America and from the Persian Gulf to south Asia.

National Academy of Sciences

More eye candy

Visual Capitalist does a nice job posting powerful visuals and data-driven content on an almost-daily basis.  Here is their best infographics of 2018 including one on the Business Value of the Blockchain.

The beauty of hurricanes

I flew into the path of Hurricane Charley in 2004 to evacuate our dogs. We grudgingly evacuated last year to escape the wrath of Irma. I wrote a case study about The National Hurricane Center in The New Polymath. I visited the NHC in Miami earlier this year to get an update. I am in awe of hurricanes.

While folks in the Carolinas probably think I am nuts as they batten their hatches for the devastation Hurricane Florence portends, how can a blog which celebrates Florence not admire the beauty in its namesake and her friends Gordon, Helene and Isaac?

Hurricanes are all about data visualization and satellites, Hurricane Hunters, dropsondes, buoy sensors and countless other capture devices generate tons of data we can then admire in their vibrant colors and shapes.

The first 4 below are from the computers at NHC, 5 from Weather Underground, 6 from satellites courtesy of MarketWatch and 7 from a Hurricane Hunter courtesy of CNN

 

The unsung heroes at the National Hurricane Center

I wrote a case study on the NHC in The New Polymath in 2010. There was much to admire:

“They reach out to a wide range of data sources in hostile circumstances. They apply multiple, conflicting models to the data. They present the data in multiple formats depending on the sophistication of the audience. And they keep improving their forecasts year on year.”

I had a chance to visit the Miami center last week to get an update. It was good to see the “platforms” for data capture continue to expand and modernize. For example, the GOES-16, which went live last year is the first of 4 next-gen geostationary satellites planned. (click on images to enlarge)

It was good to see their track forecast accuracy continue to improve

It was good to see their “products” evolve – such as a new forecast for the time when it is too late to be making preparations for a tropical storm or hurricane outside.

But it was especially nice to meet the brave, smart folks at the center

Here is Warren Madden, a meteorologist in the CARCAH unit (Chief, Aerial Reconnaissance Coordination, All Hurricanes). He has flown over 1000 hours including missions into Hurricanes Rita, Ivan, Wilma and Floyd. He talked about the planes the Hurricane Hunters fly into storms including the WP-3D Orion and the G-IV Gulfstream. He explained the role of dropsondes - temperature, pressure and humidity sensors, low powered telemetry transmitter, GPS receiver and battery in a cardboard tube with a parachute. They drop several of these sondes during each sortie. As the sonde descends the GPS receiver tracks the position and velocity and allows for deduction of wind speed and direction in the storm.

Jack Beven, Senior Hurricane Specialist. who signs off on many storm advisories like one during Hurricane Irma last year, told us about the role of satellites and supercomputers in the forecasting process.

Phil Manougian was our tour guide and chockful of information and trivia. He is a NOAA Commissioned Corps Officer. Did you know that is one of 7 Federal Uniformed Services? (others are Army, Marines, Navy, Air Force, Coast Guard and Public Health Service)

Dennis Feltgen, the Communications and Public Affairs Officer, was our host. I was impressed by how much complex science and technology at use at the NHC has to be distilled for the benefit of the lay person, under extreme stress of an approaching hurricane. Also made me appreciate how tough it must be to protect his colleagues from the media rush while they are trying to analyze the mountains of data,  often of multiple storms approaching simultaneously. 

We also met other colleagues in the Tropical Analysis & Forecast Branch which produces marine forecasts for an  an area which covers 14,000,000 square nautical miles and the National Weather Service branch co-located there which produces warnings and forecasts for South Florida and the adjacent waters. 

Can machines replace these brave souls? I asked Madden about drones, and he explained their battery life and payload capacity at this point is still pretty limited. I asked Beven about machine learning and while computers are indispensable at the NHC, they still need plenty of human interpretation. 

As I wrote in Polymath "While most of the attention goes to hurricanes when they make landfall and cause chaos, this team’s contribution is even more valuable in reducing the “false positives” – not needing to evacuate areas unless absolutely necessary."  

I left very proud of these humble, geeky public servants!

Neuroscience as art

For most neuroscientists, long days in the lab pipetting or recording from cells doesn’t inspire one to pick up a paintbrush or sketchpad. But for others, the still-mysterious—and often breathtakingly beautiful—workings of the brain are a source of awe. One such individual is neuroscientist-turned-artist Greg Dunn. As a graduate student at the University of Pennsylvania, his own research merged with experimental forays into painting, adapting neural forms to the principles of Asian art. Greg joins us to discuss his personal journey to becoming a science artist, his visions for the burgeoning field of science-inspired art, and his advice for aspiring brain-loving artists.

PLOS

Time Labs

The ever-blossoming technologies in Web browsers and smart phones give us tremendous potential to make things that you’ve never seen before on a news Web site.  In the past few months, we’ve published apps that let you draw logos from memory, declared Makati City, Philippines, to be the “selfie capital of the world,” and even attempted to turn Census data into a dating app. The ever-blossoming technologies in Web browsers and smart phones give us tremendous potential to make things that surprise, entertain and inform all at once.

We’re calling articles on Labs “stories,” because that’s just what they are: Narratives built from data where you control the plot. But TIME Labs is more than just a clearinghouse for stuff we think is cool. It’s also a place where you can explore the data that powers our projects. In addition to stories, we’ve also created pages called “data sheets” that take you behind the scenes to see the whole story of how a bunch of numbers can become a map, a chart, a game or anything else you see here.

Time Magazine

Wimbledon in infographs

“From tracking tweets and social media engagement during matches; to reporting on the weather and fans in attendance at the All England Club; to the on-court numbers like serve-speed and distance covered, IBM technologies covers all aspects of the game to help to bring the digits of tennis to life at Wimbledon 2015.

For the third Grand Slam of the 2015 season, SI.com has once again partnered with IBM to bring readers data-driven infographics and visualizations that help fully tell each storyline at Wimbledon.”

See more at IBM Sport’s Tumblr and Instagram pages

“Knowledge is Beautiful”

Relishing a walkthrough of my copy of Knowledge is Beautiful – a superb collection of visualizations by David McCandless

The Big Data of US Commercial Aviation

Nearly 87,000 flights crisscross the country each day.

It takes a small army of air traffic controllers, dispatchers, forecasters and engineers to get all of these planes and their passengers where they need to go safely and efficiently.

Watch videos below on how a new system is tracking flights in real time and routing aircraft around weather to avoid delays.

Txchnologist