Whatever we remember 2005 for, we can all agree it was the year blogs
exploded in numbers. And bloggers, shy as we are, are not hesitant to
look ahead. But scanning the many blog projections for technology in
2006 we see a majority focused on Web 2.0 - Google this, Flickr that.
Of course, with Apple and amazon.com enjoying a bumper holiday season,
the focus on consumer technologies is only accented.
Much
as I love Google, it cannot process BOMs for the average manufacturing
company. Much as my daughter loves her iPod, it will not process
insurance claims. Whoever does whatever with AOL will not improve
supply chain logistics at UPS.
As we did in the last Internet
Bubble, we risk making the Web and consumer technologies the center of
the technology world. It's the Gates/Plattner scenario again I wrote about earlier. As I wrote in Florence during the Renaissance,
innovation is happening in a number of other areas which CIOs are
actually much more excited about - especially at amazing new price points. But as I have written in several columns this year, many elements of enterprise technology spend are also grossly overpriced.
So,
here's my forecast for next year - good and bad - with more of an
enterprise focus, unsexy as that may be relative to Web 2.0:
1)
SAP, Oracle and Microsoft (around enterprise software) will have tough
years as pricing pressure intensifies on core products, particularly on
maintenance revenue streams. SAP will de-emphasize its web services
talk and go back to focusing on applications and business payback.
Oracle will go the other way and talk more about architectures as it
masks the enormity of rationalizing its various application
acquisitions. CIOs will increasingly question if all they are doing is
subsidizing Microsoft's intense focus on Google. It is behind its own
schedule or its competition in so many areas CIOs want to hear about -
from Vista to Business Solutions (Dynamics)
2) We will see
version 2.0 definitions of CRM, SCM, HRM etc - almost every software
category - emerge which will a) redefine process coverage (e.g. CRM is
more than SFA and call centers, SCM is much more than planning and
optimization) that the market leaders have chosen to define the
categories as and b) utilize appropriate, newer technology building
blocks - GPS, RFID, RSS, predictive analytics in the category
re-definition process.
3) CIOs in many non-manufacturing
verticals will tire of waiting for robust software solutions for their
major engines (claims processing, trading systems) and more
aggressively look at BPO options to support these processes. These
CIOs, especially in financial services verticals, will also pioneer
attempts to leverage web 2.0 driven discovery and social networking
tools with their enterprise applications.
4) An infrastructure
vendor - likely Dell (or Sun as it tries to redefine itself and if it
can get over its allergy of labor intensive products) - will introduce
infrastructure outsourcing at aggressive, "utility" price points to
cover a wide range of network, database, desktop and other services. In
its hype cycle for outsourcing Gartner defines infrastructure
outsourcing as one of the most mature. As systems management automation
and offsite, shared labor models mature, an efficient services "supply
chain" becomes much more viable.
5) A generation of
"appligators" will emerge - small systems integrators which specialize
in innovation areas like web services or telemetry and willing to work
with clients in small, intense teams. We will not be able to tell till
2007 if they are of a more modest breed than their predecessors, the
Scients, Viants around the ebiz boom in late 90s.
6) Large US
and European outsourcers (EDS, Accenture and by extension IBM, HP etc)
will find themselves squeezed between a) private equity firms who want
to take their valuations from 1 or 2X revenues to close to 10X many of
the Indian vendors enjoy and b) CIOs who want price points much closer
to what Indian vendors can quote. This will force these outsourcers to
finally get serious about becoming much more efficient with automation,
shared services, global delivery models etc. They will find Indian
vendors expanding into horizontal process consulting and BPO (finance,
HR) beyond their traditional IT competencies.
7) An emerging
truism in global sourcing circles is to look to China for low cost
manufactured products, but to India for services. We will see China
start this year to challenge this assumption and also flex its muscle
around software and services. The Chinese GDP was recently "updated" by
another $ 300 billion. Apparently they had "forgotten" to count their
growing services sector.
8) SaaS models will come under
increased scrutiny from buyers about stringent SLAs and business
continuity plans. In 2001, after the India/Pakistan nuclear war threat,
Indian vendors went through a similar spike in scrutiny. After last
week's well publicized outage at salesforce.com, this will become a
required due diligence step in evaluating SaaS options. The scrutiny
helped Indian vendors mature - it will similarly increase corporate
confidence in SaaS.
9) CIOs will do serious "spend management"
around storage (due to proliferation of volume demand) and
telecommunications (due to proliferation of mobile, broadband and other
products) investments. For all the promise of VoIP and free municipal
WI-FI, the reality is telecomm services are still the single largest
category in IT budgets. Most CIOs would also love to avail of Google
Mail's 2.7 gigabytes of storage for free!
10) Finally, one more
of a prayer for the US economy than a prediction. Realize 2006 is an
election year and Enron's Ken Lay will finally go on trial - but
Gartner predicts 15% of 2006 IT budgets will be related to compliance
with Sarbanes-Oxley. And as we know in different industries we have
other compliance expenses related to FDA Validation, HIPAA etc. This is
a tax American corporations have to pay that most of our global
competitors do not. So, I predict CEOs will start lobbying Congress to
back off on the compliance burden. It has been 4 years since the Enron
scandal. Today global competitiveness in a "flat" world is a far more
compelling issue than compliance.. So I predict the SOX gravy train for
many software vendors and auditors will slow down in 2006.
This
plus 6 quarters may buy you a cup of coffee at Starbucks! Today plus 4
fiscal quarters out, a version customized by Zodiac signs is planned if
a fraction of these predictions come true...
Gartner Survey of CIO Priorities
Gartner's annual survey of CIOs (1,400 surveyed with average IT budget of $ 71 million and staff of 300 IT employees) shows Business Process Improvement as the highest priority for 2006. Not surprising based on comments I got back from a few of them as they read my "process angioplasty" post.
Many of the innovative CIOs I have written about in the last year - Steelcase, Starbucks, others have focused on mobility, telemetry, predictive analytics, biometrics and collaboration applications. They have found huge paybacks from relatively small investments in those areas. Not surprisingly, those technologies get high priority. While the software industry keeps hyping up SOA as the silver bullet, CIOs rated that 6th in importance on technology priority. Another buzzword "virtualization" shows up 9th.
January 26, 2006 in Biology and Biometrics, Emerging Networks and Grids, Industry Commentary, Infrastructure innovations (Blades, virtualization), Innovative CIOs, Mobile applications and commerce, Process and Business Innovation, Software as a Service (SaaS), Telemetry (Sensors, RFID, GPS), Web Services | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)