New Florence. New Renaissance.

My first appearance on CRM Playaz

Thank you to Paul Greenberg and Brent Leary for inviting to me part of their weekly show this week.

My section starts around 23:00 - I compliment them during my comments for keeping the show light-hearted and positive. Much needed during this crazy time.

I talked about the various Zoom interviews of C level executives I have been doing - the growing list is here and I talk about likely impact on the enterprise software market. I also mention the Passion guest series. The Topsy Turvy blog post I mention is here. 

Nice to be introduced to yet another video platform I have used in the last few weeks - in this case StreamYard. Others have included Zoom, MS Team, Google Meet, ON24. On that point, it was nice to hear Tom Libretto, CMO of Pegasystems talk starting around 55.00 about virtual vendor events like Pegaworld and have everyone on the show discuss how those events are likely to evolve. 

Topsy-Turvy Day - or Decade?

I was talking to a neighbor who owns an RV and he told me Kampgrounds of America (KOA) bookings have bounced back. I did not believe him at first, but yes bookings are far outpacing cancellations. So are new RV sales. People can use them for their summer holidays without having to worry about social distancing on planes or hygiene at hotels and restaurants. But wait - look at the interviews I have done in the last few weeks indexed here. 

Hear Jack Barrett, CEO of a community bank tell that local hotel bookings are picking up (btw as impressively his bank grew 25% in a couple of months). So does Joseph Rajadurai of Cognizant Travel. Hear Rahul Samant, CIO at Delta talk about new hygiene at airports and on planes.

Used car sales are up. AutoNation had a good quarter. Why? Hygiene again. Avoiding mass transit and Uber hygiene in that scenario. And gas prices are down. Why is traffic going up on the roads, when so many are working from home and when there are so many stories about downtowns and shopping malls dying?   Well, WFH only works for digital, white collar employees. Even there, people are competing for bandwidth with their kids and their spouses. Millennials miss the social interaction. Doug Belden, a County official told me we have not even begun to appreciate the costs of social isolation - suicides, domestic abuse, delayed chemo and other therapies. I have seen in my Zoom interviews and vendor virtual events the reality of spotty bandwidth, basic laptop cams which barely produce 720p resolution. Companies will have to think about souping up and fortifying WFH infrastructure. Telecoms will have to upgrade last mile infrastructure - in most neighborhoods they are already 10-15 years old. Don't get carried away yet with WFH projections.

My conversations have provided me fascinating, contradictory data  Aneel Bhusri told me Workday saw a million person payroll. Million paychecks at a private company - let that sink in. In contrast, Brian Sommer told me he saw a recent survey at a HR conference where 0% of virtual attendees said talent acquisition was a priority. (BTW you will hear more from Brian and me about the New Normal for HR - see his column here as a start).  While there are all kinds of doomsday scenarios about commercial real estate, Parvesh Mahesh of Tavant tells me residential real estate is on a tear. Home closings have continued with innovative ways to get paperwork signed even during lockdowns. Every Starbucks and Chick-Fil-A we have driven by in the last few weeks has had long drivethrough lines. Our local Costco has a whiteboard outside showing which items are out of stock - a month ago there were 20 items on that list. This weekend it was down to 5. Regular Gas at that Costco was down to $ 1.55 a gallon at its lowest. This weekend it was up to $ 1.75.

William Gibson, the science fiction author, is said to have first said in 1993 "The future is already here - it is just not evenly distributed." That future is definitely here now. And it it is definitely unevenly distributed..

People were amazed the BLS jobs report was so positive last Friday (even after a negative adjustment they had to make the next day). I was not shocked - only a bit surprised that it was a month earlier than I expected. I estimated the July report would show an improvement, then steady gains over the next few months. Lots of reasons for my thinking - partly because I think most media and analysts keep focusing on the ends of the wealth curve and ignoring the middle. I have been collecting a bunch of data for a book on what I call the "invisible middle" - it is alive and well and just needs calming down after the initial shock of COVID-19. I say invisible because it is all around us. Costco has nearly 100 million members. Their annual household income is over $ 90K. That's middle class right there. They were the biggest buyers of 50 million cars sold in the US in the last 3 years. Their retirement and housing assets exceed $ 50 trillion in my data.

And a few more trillion that have been pumped into that with PPP emergency loans and stimulus checks. Protests and concerns of COVID flare ups are keeping them nervous.  Protests are needed but let’s do them nicely and cognizant they may contribute to the flareups, then get to some serious work, not keep making consumers nervous.

In the Disney movie, The Hunchback of Notre Dame, there is a sequence which goes

Topsy turvy!

Everyone is acting crazy

Most vendor executives I have interviewed realize the world has turned. In contrast, many proposals and presentations I am seeing in the field still reflect a yearning for business as usual. How much vertical functionality written a few years ago is still relevant as is? How many CFOs are likely to sign off on 2-3 year projects? See a perspective from Ed Abbo of C3.ai starting around 16:30. I have a conversation coming up with Brad Keywell of Uptake who has been saying similar for years now. How many companies will allow teams of on-site consultants? See the answer from Sarvesh Mahesh of Tavant starting around 18:14 about newer models likely around delivery of projects. 

Could the US economy bounce back like a bungee? Maybe, but even then the gains will be unevenly distributed. It's already clear many agile companies across industries have done well and will likely expand their advantage.

Much better to be prepared for any scenario. As the Disney song goes

Once a year we turn all Paris upside down

Every man's a king and every king's a clown

The problem is it may not just be a day - it could be a year or even a decade.

This is where my analyst training kicks in. Challenge clients to look at multiple scenarios and assign likely probabilities. Not easy - but how often do you find yourself positioned for so much success or risk as much failure?    

Topsy turvy!

Everything is upsy daysy

Don't bet against the "American Tailwind"

I look forward to the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder letters and I have excerpted from many over the years on this blog. Warren Buffett is a phenomenal investor, but I enjoy even more the historical perspective he brings.

So, it was a treat to watch the webcast of the shareholder meeting on Saturday.  The travel restrictions during the current crisis worked to the benefit of all of us who cannot go those annual events in person.

Just the fact that at 89 he could present and answer questions for 4 straight hours is inspirational. He also keeps his sense of humor. First time in his life he says he has used slides. And points out his long term partner, Charlie Munger, who is even older at 96 is now a big Zoom user:)

He kept talking about the "American Tailwind" ...how we have bounced back many times, usually much stronger than the stumbles we have had. It was calming to see his slides about the losses of young, productive men during the Civil War. Puts in perspective the mortalities during the current crisis. He also compares how much we have bounced back economically since the Great Depression. And how, since the founding of the country, our wealth, diversity and other metrics have dramatically improved. Here are some of the slides he presented.

I would recommend watching his entire history lesson. It starts around 1:00 in the replay video at bottom and goes for about an hour. The rest is about his investments and procedural stuff since it was a formal shareholder meeting.

I get by with a little help from my friends - the COVID-19 version

I am a self-confessed "glass is half-full" optimist, but in these trying times, I seek out positive humans and I am finding plenty of them.

For starters, I am grateful to the contributors to this year's Tech and my Passion series. I was planning to run one guest column a week over 6 months but I have significantly accelerated the flow. By next weekend I will have posted 25. It has been a very nice distraction for readers. And even more for me as I research each of their passions and help them improve their columns. You can see the index for this year's posts here. 

Our neighborhood and many others around the country had a Chalk the Walk day. Our paths continue to show the creativity of our young ones even a week later. Color always cheers up my FitBit.

Photo Credit Dana Schwenn Wood

More color as many neighborhoods around the country are sprucing up their gardens. Here's my wife Margaret. The neighborhood cat, Shadow supervised her keeping the prescribed six foot separation.

We went shopping at Home Depot and Lowe's for her gardening needs. Seriously, if your town's shelter-at-home rules allow, head there - their spring flower collection will cheer anyone up.  

I have been getting plenty of jokes about the economy we find ourselves in. Jokes are always welcome!

Bill Kutik shares how his neighborhood continues life while respecting social distancing guidelines.

Photo Credit - Nancy Breakstone Photography 

Talking of happy hours, my former and current analyst friends have been hosting virtual ones on Zoom.

The EIs had an appropriately titled "Very Irregular Happy Hour".

Photo Credit Ray Wang

Gartner alumni met in a "Socially Distanced Happy Hour".  This group is older than the EIs and I thought would be more somber. Nope - it was so lively you had to wonder whether we are in the middle of a global crisis. Word is getting around and many more are expected for the next one. 

photo credit Tom Austin

David Deal reminds us in this Facebook post that many people are sharing negative virus related stats on social media and that is crowding out a lot of amazing work being done by many to combat it:

"I am not advocating for people to stop sharing COVID-19 related information. Bottom line, though: if you know someone who is not taking this pandemic seriously, reach out to them and have a conversation. Facebook may not be the way to help."

Finally, my friend in Minnesota, Brad Callahan recorded this lovely song. "It's past the time for complaining...we are all in the same boat..." He will gladly work with you if you want to use creatively in a live video. You can email him here.  

Friends, stay safe and sane!

COVID-19 for the "glass half-full" optimist

There are plenty of scary stories about coronavirus. I am no medical doctor - so take all the precautions they are recommending. Fortify your immune system (on that, VC Steve Jurvetson shares his daily list of supplements), wash hands regularly, practice social distancing, work from home if you can etc. etc.

However, through my career I have seen many scares (many tech related) - I was at Gartner during the Y2K run up and advised hundreds of companies, I wrote a calming book about automation in the middle of the job loss panic a few years ago, I have taken flights to those parts of the world when people have been panicked about some Iran, N, Korea threat. I must be one of the few people who is looking forward to having the 737-MAX back. Over the years I have written plenty about innovations in that jet like this one here

You could say my angels have watched out for me. I just think I am a analytical and glass half-full kind of guy. My wife disagrees - thinks I am a worry wart when it comes to many things. 

With that preamble, let me share some balanced perspectives I have watched/read about the spread of COVID-19. Every one of them profiled is a doctor. The first one has been at Ground Zero in previous SARS, MERS outbreaks and the recent coronavirus one in China. The second one specializes in infectious diseases at Harvard and has dealt with many threats like anthrax, Ebola and Zika. The third was former head of the FDA - start around 5.45 in the video.

You may not agree with any of them - but this is a STEM and innovation focused blog and I would be remiss to not share a balance to all the pessimistic perspectives out there.

Folks this is not the Black Death - the European plague in the 1300s. This is not the Ebola outbreak in W Africa in 2014. This is an aggressive virus and yes, much deadlier than the common flu. But then we are taking way more aggressive measures than any threat in history. I wrote here about all the brainpower applied and innovation coming from the global response to the threat.

So, please spend half an hour on these three resources. My biggest fear is in our panic we overburden the healthcare system and that ends up with the real collateral damage - people who truly need help get crowded out.

Be careful, but don't panic. And yes, have faith in your angels. I do in mine.      

Coronavirus: Every cloud has a silver lining

Lots of innovation coming out of the current crisis - and it is coming from all over the world. While some of these technologies and policies will likely be used for surveillance and other concerning applications, overall I am optimistic we will come out of this challenge with a huge wave of impressive innovations.

Here is a just a small sampling.

From China

Robots used to deliver medicine, food, and disinfect rooms.

While a manual read of a CT scan can take up to 15 minutes, AI can finish reading the image in 10 seconds.

S Korea

Drive-though test clinics

Drones to spray disinfectants

Singapore

Health officials have asked citizens to scan QR codes as they go about their days. The QR codes are in taxis, office lobbies, tourist attractions and college.

Israel

remote monitoring of patients

India

Chatbot to answer questions about the virus

US

Contactless deliveries

Protecting from panic from misinformation

Many tech companies are accelerating work at home policies

Airlines are significantly increasing hygiene on planes - here is Southwest's enhanced cleaning regime

Swinging for the fences

I eagerly await a few annual letters, but two in particular - one from the Gates Foundation, and one from Berkshire and Warren Buffett.

This year, Melinda reflects on two decades of the Foundation.

Along with Bill, she elaborates in the letter here

"If you’d asked us 20 years ago, we would have guessed that global health would be our foundation’s riskiest work, and our U.S. education work would be our surest bet. In fact, it has turned out just the opposite.

In global health, there’s a lot of evidence that the world is on the right path—like the dramatic decline in childhood deaths, for example. When it comes to U.S. education, though, we’re not yet seeing the kind of bottom-line impact we expected. The status quo is still failing American students."

I especially liked the section on climate change. It's blunt - "We need zero-carbon alternatives in every sector of the economy, many of which don’t exist yet." None of the glib "renewables can get us there" talk. And "But solving climate change will require more than just mitigation. We also need to take on adaptation (to a warmer world"

The Buffett letter is, as usual, full of nuggets like

"In reviewing my uneven record, I’ve concluded that acquisitions are similar to marriage: They start, of course, with a joyful wedding – but then reality tends to diverge from pre-nuptial expectations. Sometimes, wonderfully, the new union delivers bliss beyond either party’s hopes. In other cases, disillusionment is swift. Applying those images to corporate acquisitions, I’d have to say it is usually the buyer who encounters unpleasant surprises. It’s easy to get dreamy-eyed during corporate courtships."

and with his usual modesty, this

"Since 2011, we have owned Lubrizol, an Ohio-based company that produces and markets oil additives throughout the world. On September 26, 2019, a fire originating at a small next-door operation spread to a large French plant owned by Lubrizol. The result was significant property damage and a major disruption in Lubrizol’s business. Even so, both the company’s property loss and business-interruption loss will be mitigated by substantial insurance recoveries that Lubrizol will receive. But, as the late Paul Harvey was given to saying in his famed radio broadcasts, “Here’s the rest of the story.” One of the largest insurers of Lubrizol was a company owned by . . . uh, Berkshire. In Matthew 6:3, the Bible instructs us to “Let not the left hand know what the right hand doeth.” Your chairman has clearly behaved as ordered." 

Read them both fully - I think it will be worth your time.

Retail Reincarnated

Le Tote, which recently bought the ­struggling Lord & Taylor from HBC, opened a pop-up shop for the department store chain in New York City for the holidays, its first Manhattan presence since the store closed in early 2019. Kids’ apparel brand Gymboree, which filed for bankruptcy in early 2019 for the second time in two years, will live on in the form of shops within 200 Children’s Place stores. And Barneys New York, once it is done liquidating its stores, will have a presence at a number of Saks Fifth Avenue stores, including the fifth floor of the chain’s Manhattan flagship.

These cases, along with the recent small-scale comebacks of FAO Schwarz and Toys “R” Us, all show how much life there still is in many storied retail brands, corporate mismanagement and choking debt loads aside. So while the so-called retail apocalypse has claimed a number of chains, many are being welcomed back with open arms by consumers.

Fortune

 

 

 

 

The Human Rainbow

How many colors are there in the human rainbow? By Angélica Dass’s count, at least 4,000. Since 2012, the Brazilian artist has been photographing people of every color and matching each subject’s skin tone to hues from the Pantone printing color chart to codify a unique chromatic inventory.

The project, titled “Humanæ,” has traveled the world and is featured in this month’s issue of National Geographic, which focuses on the idea of race as a social construct, rather than a biological one. Dass also gave a 2016 TED Talk on the subject (see below)

Artnet

 

The New Generation Y - the "Yold"

One might therefore expect peak retirement for baby-boomers in the coming years—except that they are not retiring. By continuing to work, and staying socially engaged, the boomers, in their new guise as the young old, will change the world, as they have done several times before at different stages of their lives.

The yold are more numerous, healthier and wealthier than previous generations of seniors. There will be 134m 65- to 74-year-olds in rich countries in 2020 (11% of the population), up from 99m (8%) in 2000. That is the fastest rate of growth of any large age group. Health worsens with age, but the yold are resisting the decline better than most: of the 3.7 years of increased life expectancy in rich countries between 2000 and 2015, says the World Health Organisation, 3.2 years were enjoyed in good health. The yold are also better off: between 1989 and 2013, the median wealth of families headed by someone over 62 in America rose by 40% to $210,000, while the wealth of all other age groups declined.

The Economist

An interesting documentary on the aging population in Japan which has encountered the "yold" phenomenon earlier than many other societies.