As the annual show kicks off in New York, the focus is about how technology is reshaping the retail experience but I found as interesting the latest Monthly Economic Review from the NRF’s Chief Economist, Jack Kleinhenz, especially the economic data he summarizes. Inflation, supply chains and COVID continue to muddy the waters but as he summarizes
"Consumer spending propelled growth in 2021 and will continue to be a bright spot as 2022 unrolls. The current recession recovery cycle is very different from previous ones. Consumers have never been as wealthy as they are today. In fact, consumer wealth grew an additional 18.1 percent year-over-year in the third quarter, keeping well ahead of inflation. If there is one lesson we have learned it is not to underestimate the resilience of the consumer and, therefore, the U.S. economy. With stimulus programs in the rearview mirror, consumer income and spending will instead be fueled by job growth paired with wage gains going forward. That said, the omicron variant could cause households to crunch down. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently said “people are learning to live with it” but households have already changed their behavior. Theater performances and concerts are being canceled and universities are returning to remote teaching. Fortunately, we have a lot of tailwind in terms of job growth, spending and production as we turn the calendar to 2022."
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