I was talking to a neighbor who owns an RV and he told me Kampgrounds of America (KOA) bookings have bounced back. I did not believe him at first, but yes bookings are far outpacing cancellations. So are new RV sales. People can use them for their summer holidays without having to worry about social distancing on planes or hygiene at hotels and restaurants. But wait - look at the interviews I have done in the last few weeks indexed here.
Hear Jack Barrett, CEO of a community bank tell that local hotel bookings are picking up (btw as impressively his bank grew 25% in a couple of months). So does Joseph Rajadurai of Cognizant Travel. Hear Rahul Samant, CIO at Delta talk about new hygiene at airports and on planes.
Used car sales are up. AutoNation had a good quarter. Why? Hygiene again. Avoiding mass transit and Uber hygiene in that scenario. And gas prices are down. Why is traffic going up on the roads, when so many are working from home and when there are so many stories about downtowns and shopping malls dying? Well, WFH only works for digital, white collar employees. Even there, people are competing for bandwidth with their kids and their spouses. Millennials miss the social interaction. Doug Belden, a County official told me we have not even begun to appreciate the costs of social isolation - suicides, domestic abuse, delayed chemo and other therapies. I have seen in my Zoom interviews and vendor virtual events the reality of spotty bandwidth, basic laptop cams which barely produce 720p resolution. Companies will have to think about souping up and fortifying WFH infrastructure. Telecoms will have to upgrade last mile infrastructure - in most neighborhoods they are already 10-15 years old. Don't get carried away yet with WFH projections.
My conversations have provided me fascinating, contradictory data Aneel Bhusri told me Workday saw a million person payroll. Million paychecks at a private company - let that sink in. In contrast, Brian Sommer told me he saw a recent survey at a HR conference where 0% of virtual attendees said talent acquisition was a priority. (BTW you will hear more from Brian and me about the New Normal for HR - see his column here as a start). While there are all kinds of doomsday scenarios about commercial real estate, Parvesh Mahesh of Tavant tells me residential real estate is on a tear. Home closings have continued with innovative ways to get paperwork signed even during lockdowns. Every Starbucks and Chick-Fil-A we have driven by in the last few weeks has had long drivethrough lines. Our local Costco has a whiteboard outside showing which items are out of stock - a month ago there were 20 items on that list. This weekend it was down to 5. Regular Gas at that Costco was down to $ 1.55 a gallon at its lowest. This weekend it was up to $ 1.75.
William Gibson, the science fiction author, is said to have first said in 1993 "The future is already here - it is just not evenly distributed." That future is definitely here now. And it it is definitely unevenly distributed..
People were amazed the BLS jobs report was so positive last Friday (even after a negative adjustment they had to make the next day). I was not shocked - only a bit surprised that it was a month earlier than I expected. I estimated the July report would show an improvement, then steady gains over the next few months. Lots of reasons for my thinking - partly because I think most media and analysts keep focusing on the ends of the wealth curve and ignoring the middle. I have been collecting a bunch of data for a book on what I call the "invisible middle" - it is alive and well and just needs calming down after the initial shock of COVID-19. I say invisible because it is all around us. Costco has nearly 100 million members. Their annual household income is over $ 90K. That's middle class right there. They were the biggest buyers of 50 million cars sold in the US in the last 3 years. Their retirement and housing assets exceed $ 50 trillion in my data.
And a few more trillion that have been pumped into that with PPP emergency loans and stimulus checks. Protests and concerns of COVID flare ups are keeping them nervous. Protests are needed but let’s do them nicely and cognizant they may contribute to the flareups, then get to some serious work, not keep making consumers nervous.
In the Disney movie, The Hunchback of Notre Dame, there is a sequence which goes
Topsy turvy!
Everyone is acting crazy
Most vendor executives I have interviewed realize the world has turned. In contrast, many proposals and presentations I am seeing in the field still reflect a yearning for business as usual. How much vertical functionality written a few years ago is still relevant as is? How many CFOs are likely to sign off on 2-3 year projects? See a perspective from Ed Abbo of C3.ai starting around 16:30. I have a conversation coming up with Brad Keywell of Uptake who has been saying similar for years now. How many companies will allow teams of on-site consultants? See the answer from Sarvesh Mahesh of Tavant starting around 18:14 about newer models likely around delivery of projects.
Could the US economy bounce back like a bungee? Maybe, but even then the gains will be unevenly distributed. It's already clear many agile companies across industries have done well and will likely expand their advantage.
Much better to be prepared for any scenario. As the Disney song goes
Once a year we turn all Paris upside down
Every man's a king and every king's a clown
The problem is it may not just be a day - it could be a year or even a decade.
This is where my analyst training kicks in. Challenge clients to look at multiple scenarios and assign likely probabilities. Not easy - but how often do you find yourself positioned for so much success or risk as much failure?
Topsy turvy!
Everything is upsy daysy
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