How did most diplomats miss the Arab spring? Were there early social network clues in some of the recent mass murders in the US? Do we have any shot at all at predicting “Black Swan” events?
Two researchers at Sandia National Labs have a research paper which suggests predictive analytics of social networks can provide early warning signs. They frame the question thus:
“The objective of this paper is to develop a scientifically-rigorous, practically-implementable methodology for performing early warning analysis for social diffusion events. Roughly speaking, we suppose that some “triggering event” has taken place or contentious issue is emerging, and we wish to determine, as
early as possible, whether this event or issue will ultimately generate a large, self-sustaining reaction, involving the diffusion of discussions and actions through a substantial segment of a population, or will instead quickly dissipate. An illustrative example of the basic idea is provided by the contrasting reactions to 1.) the publication in September 2005 of cartoons depicting Mohammad in the Danish newspaper, and 2.) the lecture given by Pope Benedict XVI in September 2006 quoting controversial material concerning Islam. While each event appeared at the outset to have the potential to trigger significant protests, the “Danish cartoons” incident ultimately led to substantial Muslim mobilization, including massive protests and considerable violence, while outrage triggered by the pope lecture quickly subsided with essentially no violence. It would obviously be very useful to have the capability to distinguish these two types of reaction as early in the event lifecycle as possible.”
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