17 women within Microsoft’s global research organization their views on what’s likely to occur in their fields in 2017. Since it’s prediction season, we also asked them to tell us what’s likely happen 10 years from now.
Bloomberg Markets profile of Brad Katsuyama, a key figure in Michael Lewis’s last book
“Moneyball was a hugely influential book for me. Starting at RBC back in 2002, we needed to find ways to be different without the same resources as the biggest banks. So I read Moneyball, and I felt like that had a pretty big influence on the way we thought. The discussion with Michael really started with helping him write a story about somebody else. He had stumbled upon the story of Sergey Aleynikov, who was thrown in prison for taking computer code. Michael went to a couple characters in The Big Short, whom I know. The first few months was really just giving him background. He’d ask, “What is this?” And we’d try our best to answer. That evolved into him getting to know and understand our story. In many ways, we just interacted with him as if he were a buy-side firm or broker who came in and started asking questions. I tried not to think about the fact that we were talking to Michael Lewis.”
5 years President Obama had dinner at John Doerr’s with an impressive group of Valley technology leaders. I wrote this back then.
Today, a similar brain trust, from the Valley and beyond visited with President-Elect Trump in New York. Whatever your politics you have to admire the intellectual firepower POTUS will be able to marshal. Glad he is reaching out to this group at the start of his term.
Sales of objects like vinyl records, paper notebooks and even board games have consistently grown over the past decade, as has their cultural relevance. Meanwhile, big brands in e-commerce, including Warby Parker and Amazon, are rushing to open the very brick-and-mortar stores they promised to supplant.
What’s driving this switch? Many assume it’s nostalgia, led by the wistful romance of aging Luddites. But in fact, many of analog’s newest fans are millennials drawn to its raw utility—the designer who uses a Moleskine notebook, for example, to sketch out a website’s early look.
Aerospace giant Boeing (BA), the country's largest exporter, started delivering 787 Dreamliners from its new plant in South Carolina in 2012. Both that factory and the company's plants in Washington state are running at record production. Boeing delivered 768 airliners in 2015, up 163% in 10 years. Archrival Airbus delivered its first U.S.-assembled airliner from its new Alabama factory in April, and Brazilian plane maker Embraer (ERJ) recently moved assembly of its smallest private jets to Florida.
U.S. auto production and employment has also been growing steadily since bottoming out in 2009 with the bankruptcies at GM and Chrysler.The industry is operating within 7% of record levels, making 12 million cars and trucks a year. Not only have GM (GM), Ford (F) and Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) all been hiring and investing in U.S. plants, but foreign automakers are expanding operations here as well. The largest BMW plant in the world is now in South Carolina, and the plant exports most of the cars it builds there (see video below)
And the boom isn't just about big-ticket items. Chemical production hit a record $797 billion last year, up 30% in the last 10 years. The chemical boom has been fueled by the record U.S. energy boom, which has made oil and natural gas particularly cheap. Petroleum is a key raw material for many chemicals, most of which are produced using energy from natural gas.
Time (sub required) has ideas from around the world we should consider as people fret about the electoral college and other idiosyncrasies of the US system
SHORTER CAMPAIGN SEASONS
Little wonder many Americans are sick of the candidates–this election will have lasted nearly 600 days by the time polls close on Nov. 8. By comparison, Canada’s longest campaign season in recent history lasted 11 weeks. In Japan, campaigns last just 12 days.
NONE OF THE ABOVE
India and Greece, among other nations, have a “none of the above” option on ballots, allowing voters to indicate disapproval without sitting out the election. In the U.S., only the state of Nevada has this option.
Australia and Ireland let voters rank their choices. This would allow Americans to vote for a third-party candidate, knowing their second choice might get the vote in later counts.
I know you are sick of these elections and do not want to hear about the 2020 ones for a couple of years, but Peter Diamandis is looking ahead and projects scenarios like
“ Imagine I'm walking down the street to my local coffee shop, and a photorealistic avatar of the presidential candidate on the bus stop advertisement I pass turns to me and says:
"Hi Peter, I'm running for president. I know you have two 5-year old boys going to kindergarten at XYZ School. Do you know that my policy means that we'll be cutting tuition in half for you? That means you'll immediately save $10,000 if you vote for me…"
If you pause and listen, the candidate's avatar may continue: "I also noticed that you care a lot about science, technology, and space exploration – I do too, and I'm planning on increasing NASA's budget by 20% next year. Let's go to Mars!"
"I'd really appreciate your vote. Every vote and every dollar counts. Do you mind flicking me a $1 sticker to show your support?"”
On Twitter, for example, the handle @POTUS will be made available to the 45th President of the United States on January 20, 2017. The account will retain its more than 11 million followers, but start with no tweets on the timeline. @POTUS44, a newly created handle maintained by NARA, will contain all of President Obama’s tweets and will be accessible to the public on Twitter as an archive of President Obama’s use of the account.
On Instagram and Facebook, the incoming White House will gain access to the White House username, URL, and retain the followers, but will start with no content on the timeline. An archive of White House content that was posted to the Obama White House Instagram and Facebook will continue to be accessible to the public at Instagram.com/ObamaWhiteHouse and Facebook.com/ObamaWhiteHouse. Facebook accounts for President Obama and the Vice President and the Instagram accounts belonging to the First Lady and Vice President will be moved to new “44” usernames and preserved by NARA.
Ever since the High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program opened in 2003, people have been intrigued by the field of antennas off mile 11.3 of the Tok Cutoff Road.
The field of radio transmitters designed to heat portions of space has not operated since 2014. The University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute took it over from the U.S. Air Force in 2015. Despite that inactivity, 350 people were curious enough to travel to Gakona on Aug. 27 and explore the HAARP facility during an open house held by faculty and staff members of the Geophysical Institute.
Long a conversation piece for people who questioned what Department of Defense scientists were doing in the Copper River Valley far from any town, HAARP will soon host its first campaigns under university ownership.
Cold hearted orb that rules the night, Removes the colours from our sight, Red is gray and yellow white, But we decide which is right. And which is an illusion?
The Moody Blues wrote those famous lyrics nearly 50 years ago and way before the term ‘Big Data” was coined. These days with all kinds of social sentiment, sensory, satellite and other data which clearly help identify red as red and yellow as yellow, we still seem to want to decide which is right and which is an illusion.
Take what happened in Florida last week. Matt Drudge, the conservative blogger questioned if the government was exaggarating the intensity of Hurricane Matthew. I live on the western coast of Florida and was not affected much by this storm, but having lived through several close calls, I was pleased to see our governor (who may be even more conservative than Matt), sound the alarms loud and clear. Over 1.5 million Floridians faced evacuation orders. But the Governor then fought pleas for extending the voter registration deadline and a court had to intervene.
That was one of the largest Florida evacuations in recent memory. One of the most impressive achievements of the National Hurricane Center is that its ‘track forecast error” has been steadily dropping over decades. The improvements in track forecasts have meant that hundreds of miles of coastline have not been evacuated and we have saved millions of dollars in emergency services. As I found out when I wrote a case study on the NHC in The New Polymath, it has to collect truly “Big Data” via satellite imagery, flights by the Hurricane Hunters, sensors on buoys in the water, dropsondes parachuted through storm clouds and other sources. It uses supercomputing power to create multiple models of likely tracks ( you see them as spaghetti tracks on your TV). It goes back at the end of each season and audits its forecasts.
And yet, we let our politics question the men and machines at the NHC. I have noticed a bothersome trend with my right leaning trends. They are suspicious of any government sourced data – they are afraid to give President Obama any credit and, in turn, potentially help Hillary Clinton’s chances.
But my liberal friends are no better. They are so convinced of the “middle class squeeze” and want more social programs that they refuse to believe Big Data from the IRS, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau that I mined for my new book, Silicon Collar. The data shows plenty of opportunity for anybody with some initiative
· if you leave out the top 5%, the rest reported $ 6 trillion in AGI or $ 8 trillion in income to the IRS
· for 3+ years, the BLS has reported at least 4 million unfilled jobs every single month
· this economy has 40+ million jobs in franchises, platforms (Apple, eBay, Uber etc.), new services (alternative health, ethnic grocers etc.) which are not being tracked very well, but providing opportunities for many at $20, 100K, eveh higher a year
Most concerning is many of my tech savvy friends who do not want to accept the century of Big Data of research for the book which shows automation only gradually erodes jobs.
Why are there still 90,000 bank branches with over half a million teller and other jobs (just in the US) even after decades of ATMs and Mobile banking? Why do we still have over 600,000 U.S. postal jobs in the face of all kinds of digital communications and when the USPS has automated in the form of kiosks and logistics tech? Why do we still have so many grocery checkout jobs in face of the UPC code/scanner patented 65 years ago and self checkout available for years now? In a world of CGI, why do today’s animated movies show more animators in their credits than Disney’s Snow White did in 1937? How slowly will autonomous cars become mainstream and taxi and truck drivers disappear in a world where half the cars sold globally last year were still manual transmission ?
Their argument – machines are evolving much faster these days so they will destroy jobs much quicker. My counter – technology may be evolving quicker, but technology adoption curves have not speeded up. If anything, my research shows our societies have “circuit-breakers to over automation”. And they go – the past is a poor indicator of the future.
But they don’t have the data. And yet, they want me to be a believer in their lack of Big Data. They want me call their red gray and their yellow white.