Dyson may be the world’s most interesting engineering and design firm. It’s not just because they manufacture 40,000 inventive products a day, from high-end vacuum cleaners to fans with no blades, but because it’s a multi-billion dollar empire that’s owned, not by shareholders, but by one man, its founder, James Dyson.
James Dyson is approaching 70, and of three children, he has one son who has been anointed his successor: Jake. (His other son is a musician, while his daughter is a fashion designer.)
New Scientist (sub required) has a whole issue which looks 60 years ahead
“The internet, global warming, artificial intelligence and genetic engineering were all on our radar in 1956. But our ideas about how they might pan out bore little resemblance to how they have actually evolved, particularly when it comes to their social ramifications. Ubiquitous information has not created rationalist utopias, ecological catastrophes have not culled our population and we have neither super-human machines nor people, though we’re getting there.
Can we hope to do any better at predicting the future today? One way to proceed is to simply extrapolate: in other words, look at what’s happening now and assume that the trends you see will continue. This works well when you can expect a system to remain governed by the same principles. Celestial dynamics don’t vary much, so we can predict with confidence that Halley’s comet will return to our skies in 2061.
As systems get more complex, however, accurate prediction becomes more difficult. Long-term weather forecasting, for example, is fearsomely hard. When we think about social change, it becomes harder still. There are far more factors to take into account and they unfold in complex and interacting ways. Linear extrapolation invariably fails: it’s the kind of thinking that leads people to jokily ask “where’s my jetpack?”, a question borne of post-war trends in transport and the space race – none of them relevant today.”
17 women within Microsoft’s global research organization their views on what’s likely to occur in their fields in 2017. Since it’s prediction season, we also asked them to tell us what’s likely happen 10 years from now.
Bloomberg Markets profile of Brad Katsuyama, a key figure in Michael Lewis’s last book
“Moneyball was a hugely influential book for me. Starting at RBC back in 2002, we needed to find ways to be different without the same resources as the biggest banks. So I read Moneyball, and I felt like that had a pretty big influence on the way we thought. The discussion with Michael really started with helping him write a story about somebody else. He had stumbled upon the story of Sergey Aleynikov, who was thrown in prison for taking computer code. Michael went to a couple characters in The Big Short, whom I know. The first few months was really just giving him background. He’d ask, “What is this?” And we’d try our best to answer. That evolved into him getting to know and understand our story. In many ways, we just interacted with him as if he were a buy-side firm or broker who came in and started asking questions. I tried not to think about the fact that we were talking to Michael Lewis.”
5 years President Obama had dinner at John Doerr’s with an impressive group of Valley technology leaders. I wrote this back then.
Today, a similar brain trust, from the Valley and beyond visited with President-Elect Trump in New York. Whatever your politics you have to admire the intellectual firepower POTUS will be able to marshal. Glad he is reaching out to this group at the start of his term.
Sales of objects like vinyl records, paper notebooks and even board games have consistently grown over the past decade, as has their cultural relevance. Meanwhile, big brands in e-commerce, including Warby Parker and Amazon, are rushing to open the very brick-and-mortar stores they promised to supplant.
What’s driving this switch? Many assume it’s nostalgia, led by the wistful romance of aging Luddites. But in fact, many of analog’s newest fans are millennials drawn to its raw utility—the designer who uses a Moleskine notebook, for example, to sketch out a website’s early look.
Aerospace giant Boeing (BA), the country's largest exporter, started delivering 787 Dreamliners from its new plant in South Carolina in 2012. Both that factory and the company's plants in Washington state are running at record production. Boeing delivered 768 airliners in 2015, up 163% in 10 years. Archrival Airbus delivered its first U.S.-assembled airliner from its new Alabama factory in April, and Brazilian plane maker Embraer (ERJ) recently moved assembly of its smallest private jets to Florida.
U.S. auto production and employment has also been growing steadily since bottoming out in 2009 with the bankruptcies at GM and Chrysler.The industry is operating within 7% of record levels, making 12 million cars and trucks a year. Not only have GM (GM), Ford (F) and Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) all been hiring and investing in U.S. plants, but foreign automakers are expanding operations here as well. The largest BMW plant in the world is now in South Carolina, and the plant exports most of the cars it builds there (see video below)
And the boom isn't just about big-ticket items. Chemical production hit a record $797 billion last year, up 30% in the last 10 years. The chemical boom has been fueled by the record U.S. energy boom, which has made oil and natural gas particularly cheap. Petroleum is a key raw material for many chemicals, most of which are produced using energy from natural gas.
Time (sub required) has ideas from around the world we should consider as people fret about the electoral college and other idiosyncrasies of the US system
SHORTER CAMPAIGN SEASONS
Little wonder many Americans are sick of the candidates–this election will have lasted nearly 600 days by the time polls close on Nov. 8. By comparison, Canada’s longest campaign season in recent history lasted 11 weeks. In Japan, campaigns last just 12 days.
NONE OF THE ABOVE
India and Greece, among other nations, have a “none of the above” option on ballots, allowing voters to indicate disapproval without sitting out the election. In the U.S., only the state of Nevada has this option.
Australia and Ireland let voters rank their choices. This would allow Americans to vote for a third-party candidate, knowing their second choice might get the vote in later counts.
I know you are sick of these elections and do not want to hear about the 2020 ones for a couple of years, but Peter Diamandis is looking ahead and projects scenarios like
“ Imagine I'm walking down the street to my local coffee shop, and a photorealistic avatar of the presidential candidate on the bus stop advertisement I pass turns to me and says:
"Hi Peter, I'm running for president. I know you have two 5-year old boys going to kindergarten at XYZ School. Do you know that my policy means that we'll be cutting tuition in half for you? That means you'll immediately save $10,000 if you vote for me…"
If you pause and listen, the candidate's avatar may continue: "I also noticed that you care a lot about science, technology, and space exploration – I do too, and I'm planning on increasing NASA's budget by 20% next year. Let's go to Mars!"
"I'd really appreciate your vote. Every vote and every dollar counts. Do you mind flicking me a $1 sticker to show your support?"”