"Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create
superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended."
Vernor Vinge, 1993
At mid-point he revisits the topic in this article and paints the following
scenarios:
"..singularity will come as some combination of the following:
The AI Scenario: We create superhuman artificial intelligence (AI) in
computers.
The IA Scenario: We enhance human intelligence through human-to-computer
interfaces—that is, we achieve intelligence amplification (IA).
The Biomedical Scenario: We directly increase our intelligence by improving
the neurological operation of our brains.
The Internet Scenario: Humanity, its networks, computers, and databases
become sufficiently effective to be considered a superhuman being.
The Digital Gaia Scenario: The network of embedded microprocessors becomes
sufficiently effective to be considered a superhuman being."
And here is a video
on the topic
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